Live data · API-Football · Season 2026/27 · fetched 26 Oct, 22:19
Chelsea v Manchester Unitedprediction & betting tips
Saturday 31 October at 12:30, Stamford Bridge
Kick-off
Chelsea
Manchester UnitedOur verdict
Chelsea win
Most likely score 2–1
53%
probability
Prediction & betting tips
- Chelsea are 53% favourites in our model, creating an expected 2.1 goals to 1.5.
- Chelsea arrive in better form, with 7 points from their last 5 games against Manchester United's 3; Chelsea have scored 11 and conceded 8 in 4 home games.
- In the last 6 meetings Chelsea won 2, Manchester United won 3 and 1 were drawn.
21
Manchester UnitedOur pick
Chelsea to win
Match result
Our view 53% · fair 1.90
Over 2.5 goals
Total goals
Our view 69% · fair 1.44
Both teams to score – Yes
Chelsea v Manchester United preview
Our model gives Chelsea a 53% chance of winning, with the draw at 21% and Manchester United at 26%. Chelsea sit 5th on 13 points, while Manchester United are 16th on 7. Chelsea are clear favourites, and the expected goals of 2.1–1.5 point to a 2–1 as the single most likely scoreline. Goals look likely, with over 2.5 at 69%.
Expected line-ups
Based on each team's starting XI from their last match. Confirmed line-ups replace this about an hour before kick-off.
Missing players
Chelsea
No reported absences.
Manchester United
No reported absences.
Team news
Chelsea
- Which game will Chelsea's Palmer miss after red card?
BBC Sport · 26 Oct
- Premier League fans predict Ballon d'Or winner
BBC Sport · 26 Oct
- 'I didn't know that' - Alonso on Joao Pedro injury leak
BBC Sport · 25 Oct
- 'I feel sick' - Chelsea fan reacts to Spurs defeat
BBC Sport · 24 Oct
Manchester United
- Howe and Nagelsmann high on Man Utd's list if Carrick sacked
BBC Sport · 26 Oct
Form
Chelsea
5th · 13 pts
At home: 11 scored, 8 conceded in 4 games
Manchester United
16th · 7 pts
Away: 4 scored, 6 conceded in 4 games
Head to head
Manchester United have won 3 of the last 6 meetings, Chelsea 2, with 1 draw.
2
Chelsea wins
1
Draws
3
Manchester United wins
- 18 Apr 2026Chelsea0–1Manchester United
- 20 Sept 2025Manchester United
Match stories
How could this game go?
Pick how the game unfolds and see how common bets change if it does.
Chelsea score in the first 15 minutes.
This happens in about 1 in 3.8 games like this (27%).
Real record, 2026/27: Chelsea led at half-time 3 times and won 3.
If Chelsea score early…
- Over 2.5 goals83% if so
▲ 14 pts · normally 69%
- Chelsea to win74% if so
▲ 21 pts · normally 53%
- Both teams to score73% if so
▲ 6 pts · normally 68%
Percentages assume the story happens, and it may not. These are not tips.
18+ · Gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
Check a bet
Build a bet and type the odds you're offered. We'll tell you how often it really comes off — and whether the price is fair.
Estimates from our model, not guarantees. Decimal odds (e.g. 5/2 = 3.50). 18+ · Gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
Other Matchday 9 predictions
Fair odds
| Chelsea | 53% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.79 |
| Manchester United | 26% | 3.79 |
Fair odds are the inverse of our probability. A bookmaker price above them suggests value.
