Live data · API-Football · Season 2026/27 · fetched 26 Oct, 22:19
Manchester City v Brightonprediction & betting tips
Saturday 31 October at 15:00, Etihad Stadium
Kick-off
Manchester City
BrightonOur verdict
Manchester City win
Most likely score 2–2
41%
probability
Prediction & betting tips
- Manchester City are 41% favourites in our model, creating an expected 2.1 goals to 2.1.
- Both sides have 12 points from their last 5 games; Manchester City have scored 11 and conceded 6 in 4 home games.
- In the last 6 meetings Manchester City won 2, Brighton won 2 and 2 were drawn.
22
BrightonOur pick
Over 2.5 goals
Total goals
Our view 79% · fair 1.27
Both teams to score – Yes
Both teams to score
Our view 77% · fair 1.30
Manchester City to win
Match result
Manchester City v Brighton preview
Our model gives Manchester City a 41% chance of winning, with the draw at 20% and Brighton at 39%. Manchester City sit 1st on 21 points, while Brighton are 3rd on 16. It looks a tight contest; the expected goals of 2.1–2.1 make 2–2 the single most likely scoreline. Goals look likely, with over 2.5 at 79%.
Expected line-ups
Based on each team's starting XI from their last match. Confirmed line-ups replace this about an hour before kick-off.
Missing players
Manchester City
No reported absences.
Brighton
No reported absences.
Team news
Manchester City
- Premier League fans predict Ballon d'Or winner
BBC Sport · 26 Oct
- Man City fan on 'frustrating' first league defeat of the season
BBC Sport · 24 Oct
- Maresca 'not worried' about Guehi form
BBC Sport · 24 Oct
- Man City's leaky defence highlights Donnarumma & Guehi struggles
BBC Sport · 24 Oct
Brighton
- Brighton fan remains upbeat despite Liverpool defeat
BBC Sport · 25 Oct
Form
Manchester City
1st · 21 pts
At home: 11 scored, 6 conceded in 4 games
Brighton
3rd · 16 pts
Away: 10 scored, 6 conceded in 4 games
Head to head
The last 6 meetings are level at 2 wins each, with 2 draws.
2
Manchester City wins
2
Draws
2
Brighton wins
- 7 Jan 2026Manchester City1–1Brighton
- 31 Aug 2025Brighton
Match stories
How could this game go?
Pick how the game unfolds and see how common bets change if it does.
Manchester City score in the first 15 minutes.
This happens in about 1 in 3.9 games like this (25%).
Real record, 2026/27: Manchester City led at half-time 4 times and won 4.
If Manchester City score early…
- Over 2.5 goals89% if so
▲ 10 pts · normally 79%
- Both teams to score84% if so
▲ 8 pts · normally 77%
- Manchester City to win62% if so
▲ 21 pts · normally 41%
Percentages assume the story happens, and it may not. These are not tips.
18+ · Gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
Check a bet
Build a bet and type the odds you're offered. We'll tell you how often it really comes off — and whether the price is fair.
Estimates from our model, not guarantees. Decimal odds (e.g. 5/2 = 3.50). 18+ · Gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.org
Other Matchday 9 predictions
Fair odds
| Manchester City | 41% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.95 |
| Brighton | 39% | 2.58 |
Fair odds are the inverse of our probability. A bookmaker price above them suggests value.
